largestlotteryjackpot| Domestic high-frequency tracking| Marginal rebound in the start of the chemical chain (Guojin Macro·Zhao Wei Team)

SourceLargestlotteryjackpotA probe into Zhao Weihong's view

High-frequency tracking: the marginal recovery of production starts, the decline of construction starts, and lukewarm consumer demand

[industrial production] the marginal recovery of industrial production. This week, the operating rate of blast furnace, soda ash and PTA rebounded at a low level, and the month-on-month ratio increased by 0% respectively.Largestlotteryjackpot.9%, 2% and 3.7%, lower than 2.8, 6.8 and 4 percentage points in the same period last year; the operating rate of polyester filament and automobile semi-steel tire increased slightly, up 0.2% and 0.5% respectively from the same period last year, which was 10 percentage points higher than that of the same period last year; the start-up of major industrial metals increased slightly, and the start-up of aluminum industry and electrolytic copper increased by 0.2 and 0.9 percentage points respectively.

[construction start] Construction starts have slowed down. This week, the national grinding operation rate, cement shipment rate, apparent glass consumption and asphalt start-up rate dropped significantly, down 1.5%, 0.5%, 11.9% and 1.4% respectively from the previous week, and 5.1%, 10.1%, 12.9% and 11.5% lower than the same period last year, reflecting that the start of real estate and infrastructure construction is still weak.

[downstream demand] Consumer demand is tepid, real estate transactions have rebounded, and export freight rates continue to rise. This week, consumer demand was tepid, with vehicle freight volume and road freight volume falling slightly, down 0.2% and 0.7% respectively from the previous month. The transaction area of commercial housing across the country rebounded, increasing by 17.2% from the previous month, and the transaction area of all cities increased by 11%, 18.6% and 27.2%, respectively. In terms of exports, the CCFI composite index continued to recover, increasing by 0.6% month-on-month, while Southeast Asia and Mediterranean routes increased by 5.9% and 2.9% respectively.

The economic recovery is not as good as expected, and the impact of the policy is not as good as expected.

1. Production high-frequency tracking: industrial start-up has rebounded, while construction start-up has declined.

In terms of upstream production, the operating rate of blast furnace continued to increase, and the apparent consumption decreased slightly. This week (April 21 to April 27), the profits of steel mills continued to repair, increasing 2.2% month-on-month; led to the continuous recovery of steel production, blast furnace start-up increased by 0.9%, narrowing the gap to 2.8 percentage points compared with the same period last year. The apparent consumption of steel fell slightly, with a decrease of 0.2% compared with the same period last year, which was 4.5% lower than that of the same period last year, of which the apparent consumption of cold-rolled plate decreased by 2.3% compared with the same period last year, but the apparent consumption of rebar increased by 2.3%. In terms of inventory, social inventory continued to go to the treasury and decreased by 4.3% compared with the same period in 2022 and 2023, which was 90.8% and 105.3% of that in 2022 and 2023.

The production boom in the middle reaches rebounded, and the operating rate of the chemical chain rebounded significantly. This week (April 21 to April 27), soda ash starts continued to pick up, increasing by 2% month-on-month, but lower than 6.8% in the same period last year. The supply of PTA in the textile chain rebounded sharply, with the operating rate rising 3.7 per cent month-on-month and 4 percentage points lower than the same period last year, while the operating rate of downstream polyester filament increased slightly, up 0.2 per cent from the previous month and 11.6 percentage points higher than the same period last year. At the same time, the operating rate of semi-steel tires for automobiles has rebounded, with an increase of 0.5% from the previous month, which is 10.3 percentage points higher than that of the same period in the lunar calendar last year.

The start-up of major industrial metals has rebounded and inventory trends continue to diverge. This week (April 21 to April 27), the operating rate of the aluminum industry increased slightly from the week before, increasing 0.2% from the previous week, 1.1 percentage points lower than the same period last year, while the operating rate of copper rods rebounded, increasing 0.9% from the previous week, 8 percentage points lower than the same period last year. In terms of inventory, electrolytic aluminum inventory continued to go to the warehouse, a month-on-month decrease of 4.4%, lower than the same period last year by 5.4%; by comparison, social copper inventory continued to rise, up 1.2% from the previous week, 45% higher than the same period last year.

In the construction industry, cement production needs to continue to decline and inventories continue to rise. This week (April 21 to April 27), cement production needs to continue to decline, the national grinding operation rate decreased by 1.5% compared with the previous week, with a gap of 5.1% compared with the same period last year, and the cement shipment rate decreased by 0.5% month-on-month, a year-on-year drop of 10.1%. Under the condition of weak production and demand, cement inventory and prices have fallen. The cement storage capacity decreased significantly by 1.6% compared with the week before last, which was 3% lower than that of the same period last year. The average national cement price decreased slightly and decreased by 0.3% compared with the previous week.

Glass production was flat last week, apparent consumption dropped significantly, and asphalt operating rate fell somewhat. This week (April 21 to April 27), glass production was unchanged last week, 7% higher than the same period last year; apparent consumption fell significantly, 11.9% lower than the previous week, 12.9% lower than the same period last year. The decline in demand caused the price of glass to fall again, down 0.7% from the previous week to the 29.% quantile. In addition, the low level of asphalt start-up dropped by 1.4% month-on-month, a gap of 11.5 percentage points compared with the same period last year.

2. High-frequency tracking of demand: consumption is tepid, real estate transactions have rebounded, and export freight rates continue to rise.

National commercial housing sales have rebounded, year-on-year decline is still large. This week (April 21 to April 27), the average daily transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium-sized cities continued to rise, up 17.2% from the previous week, down 37.1% from the same period last year, and 6.5 percentage points lower than last week. In terms of cities, first-tier, second-tier and third-tier cities all rebounded compared with the previous week, with an increase of 11%, 18.6% and 27.2% respectively over the previous week, and a decrease of 23.2%, 48.8% and 23% respectively over the same period last year. Since April, commercial housing transactions across the country have dropped by 40.6% year-on-year, 4.9 percentage points lower than the previous month, and commercial housing transactions in all cities have dropped by 33.1%, 46.2% and 37.4% respectively, a decrease of 7.4%, 2.6% and 7.6%. In addition, last week, the transaction area of second-hand housing in representative cities across the country fell, by 10.4% compared with the same period last year, down 20.1% from the same period last year.

Nationwide, the flow of complete vehicles and road freight has declined slightly, while the volume of railway freight and postal services has increased. Last week (April 15 to April 21), the market supply and demand was stable, and the freight flow of whole vehicles dropped slightly, reducing 0.2% from the previous week. The freight volume of most provinces and cities changed less than that of last week, with only Qinghai and Xinjiang rising and falling greatly, increasing by 24.3% and falling by 15.2% respectively. Road freight traffic has also declined, reducing 0.7% month-on-month. In comparison, railway freight traffic continued to increase, increasing by 3.1% month-on-month; at the same time, express delivery volume continued to increase, with revenue and delivery volume up 4.3% and 3.9% respectively from the previous month.

Cross-regional travel activity continued to decline, and the number of domestic flights dropped significantly. This week (April 14 to April 20), the decline in the national migration scale index slowed, 2.3 percentage points lower than last week and 3.8 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The number of domestic executed flights dropped significantly, by 5.5% month-on-month and 5.6% from the same period last year, while the number of international executive flights continued to pick up, an increase of 1.5% over last week and 126.42% over the same period last year.

The congestion delay index has rebounded, and the city is mainly traveling by subway. This week (April 21 to April 27), the average daily passenger flow of subway in sample cities across the country decreased by 1.4% compared with last week. Among them, subway passenger flow in Dongguan, Guangzhou, Foshan and other cities decreased significantly, by 14.7%, 10.7% and 8.3% respectively compared with last week. The national congestion delay index continued to rise, with a month-on-month increase of 0.6 percentage points, with the intra-city congestion index of Yinchuan, Nanning and Chengdu rising by 6.8%, 5.3% and 4.8% respectively over the previous week.

The consumption of watching movies continued to decline, while the consumption of cars increased. Last week (April 01 to April 07), in terms of offline film consumption, the average daily box office revenue and the average number of people watching movies continued to decline, which decreased by 31.5% and 31.4% respectively compared with the previous week, which was 52.5% and 48.5% of that of the same period last year. In terms of automobile consumption, the weekly retail and wholesale sales of passenger cars rebounded by 23.7% and 32.6% respectively, and the average five-week sales increased by 1.2% and decreased by 0.2%, respectively, down from 4.8% and 11.2% in the same period last year.

On the export side, container rates continued to improve, while the dry bulk index fell slightly. This week (21 April to 27 April), in the export container market, the CCFI composite index continued to rise, up 0.6 per cent from the previous month. In terms of routes, support for Southeast Asian and Mediterranean routes has been strengthened, and freight rates have continued to improve, respectively, an increase of 5.9% and 2.9% over the week before last. The marginal improvement of the US-West route has decreased by 0.5% compared with the week before, or 3.5 percentage points. In contrast, BDI rates fell slightly this week, down 2.6 per cent from the previous month.

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