tacklebox| The main contract price of urea surged high and fell back: the ex-factory price of Zhongyuan Dahua Chemical Co., Ltd. rose 20 yuan to 2320 yuan/ton

Newsletter summary

The main contract price of urea fell, and the spot quotation rose steadily. Future expectations are mainly volatile, risk hints: export volume and prices exceed expectations and coal price fluctuations. The CECI Caofeidian index rose after soliciting opinions on the national measures for the management of chemical fertilizer commercial reserves.

Text of news flash

Urea price fluctuations are intertwined with market expectations, and short-term shocks are expected to dominate []

Recent experience in urea marketTackleboxAfter a wave of violent fluctuations, the main contract price of urea has gone up and down. The closing price of the UR2409 contract was 2119 yuan / ton, a decrease of 1%.Tacklebox.85%, trading volume was 257041 lots, position was 240623 lots, a net increase of 2158 lots.

In the spot quotation of urea, the ex-factory price of small granule urea shows a stable trend. The ex-factory price of Central Plains Dahua was slightly raised to 2320 yuan / ton, while the ex-factory price of Henan Xinlianxin remained at 2255 yuan / ton.TackleboxShandong rising factory price is 2230 yuan / ton, Hualu Hengsheng factory price is 2190 yuan / ton, Shanxi Fengxi factory price is 2200 yuan / ton, Inner Mongolia Tianrun ex-factory price is 2070 yuan / ton.

Market analysts predict that urea prices will be mainly volatile in the short term due to differences in demand at home and abroad. Export expectations are suppressed in the short term, mainly due to the impact of concentrated procurement in the international market, but in the medium term, export speculation may become a potential market driver. Under the pressure of sustained supply of 180000 tons per day, domestic enterprise inventories fell to 390000 tons for several consecutive weeks. This downward trend is mainly due to the centralized replenishment of stocks after the phased stabilization of urea prices. At the same time, the operating rate of high nitrogen compound fertilizer remains high, but it may show a trend of marginal weakening in the future.

As far as spot prices are concerned, although the basis limits its upward space, the expectation of a strong spot price in the short term still exists. Policy voices may reduce bulls' risk appetite, but the strength of spot prices provides a degree of support for the market and limits the downside.

The risks that investors need to be wary of include a much higher-than-expected export volume and price, a large shutdown of the plant and a sharp fluctuation in coal prices.

In addition, the National Development and Reform Commission is openly soliciting opinions on the National measures for the Management of Commercial reserves of Chemical Fertilizer (revised draft for soliciting opinions). In this method, the national chemical fertilizer commercial reserve is divided into three parts: nitrogen, phosphorus and compound fertilizer reserve, potash fertilizer reserve and disaster relief fertilizer reserve, and follows the basic principles of enterprise storage, government subsidy, market operation and self-financing. The term of responsibility for each round of the national chemical fertilizer commercial reserve shall be not less than 4 years.

In the relevant market developments, China Thermal Coal purchase Price Index (CECI Caofeidian Index) 5500 today's price is 830 yuan / ton, up 1 yuan / ton compared with the previous trading day.